The Dow today was down .81%, the NASDAQ down 1.52%, and the S&P was down 1% and one of the reasons we saw this was because of the Alcoa earnings which reported a loss of $143 million dollars, and the general expectations that earnings may not go very well this quarter.
The IMF also came out and cut their forecast for growth globally. This is not too surprising knowing that Europe is in a mess, China is slowing, and we can't get our own (U.S.) house straightened. So the market turned lower on this.
I am carefully watching the SPY ETF to see if it break the bullish channel from June. If it does, it will confirm the beginning of a downside move hat has begun to the form in the SPY since our lower high at $147 a few days ago.
Some other charts that are showing strength are the VIX and TLT. The VIX looks to be on the verge of breaking out into $17-$18 dollar range, which would be a big trend change, and the Treasuries are seeing some divergence in the price and in the MACD indicator (see the chart of the day). This would signal that our markets are on the verge of change. I am neutral at this point on most trades waiting for the market to to breakout above $147 for bullish and below $143 for bearish.
Happy Trading!
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