Ben did say that he would entertain the idea if the job situation here in the US did not get better. The Fed's forecast for growth was revised downward, but still growing. The problem is more a fiscal problem and not a monetary problem and this extends to the US government, and European government need to get a hold on their debt.
What is happening in this market as earnings season is upon us is that earnings of major companies most likely will be slowing down significantly. That is a real problem when you are trying to create growth. With continued unemployment rate still floating at 8% corporations are not as likely to hire, and the street is not going to react kindly to that kind of information.
If you look at the weekly chart of the SPY it a skewed double top. The volume is rising this week and as it continues to climb that will signal that traders are getting nervous about what is to come. Last summer we saw the same weakness creep in and this time it could meant that we are just a few weeks and some bad news away from another big drop in the market.
One other chart has alway helped clarify whether a drop is coming and that is the S&P 100 percentage of stocks above there 200 day moving average. This chart basically measures the percentage of stock above there 200 day moving average. When this chart drops down to 60% that is when you should be getting nervous about things.
We are right there. All the market needs is reason to move. Right now there is not enough upside momentum to push the SPY above $140, which means most likely the market is going to move down or trade sideways for the next 3 months or so.
No comments:
Post a Comment